Archive for November, 2008
Vashon’s Cafe Luna Presents Jonathan Nicholson
Cafe Luna brings world recognized guitarist Jonathan Nicholson to Vashon on Friday, November 14th, 2008, starting at 7:30pm.
Instrumentalist Jonathan Nicholson writes “harmonics-heavy instrumental acoustic music that co-exists as complex foreground ambience and water-smooth background dinner music.”(Isamu Jordan, The Spokesman Review) He currently performs mostly throughout the Northwest, but due to his increasing popularity online and as the word of mouth about his music continues to spread, he continues to consistently sell music in places he’s never even performed.
Jonathan has 5 albums to his credit; the latest is Calliope’s End (2006). He has performed in concert with such New Age and folk stars as David Lanz & Hans York, and has sold CDs in more than 7 countries.
“… Jonathan Nicholson is a noteworthy guitarist who is able to move one with his music and let you ponder about life. His techniques used are first-rate, he uses overtones, flageolets and flowing arpeggios to create his own style with his own solacing signature.”
“…Jonathan Nicholson is one of these acoustic guitarists who has the gift to inspire one and dares to go beyond the surface of the soul.” - Henk te Veldhuis, Bridge Guitar Reviews (The Netherlands)
Alicia Healey with Lisa Mills & Laurie Miller
Country/Roots/Pop/Folk
November 15, Saturday, 7:30
No Cover
Seattle songwriter Alicia Healey brings with Lisa Mills and Laurie Miller (both of Swamp Mama Johnson) will be performing vocals, harmonica and electric guitar at Cafe Luna.
Alicia Healey is real live Iowa farm girl. Back on the homestead, her powerful, classically-trained voice won her acclaim in musical theatre, but her “inner songwriter” was hankering to get out. She polished up her folk guitar, came west, and started writing songs that added a contemporary folk flavor to her driving pop and country. Her songwriting is featured on the CD “Quiet Here” and her new recording “Live at the Mansion.”
She spent several years with the acoustic country/folk group Rodeo Lagoon a group well-known in the Pacific Northwest for its amazing harmonies and fresh arrangements of folk and bluegrass songs. Rodeo Lagoon recorded an 7-song CD in 2001 (available for download and order), which highlights both the lead-vocal prowess and the magical blend of the three voices.
Vashon’s Cafe Luna: Lunavision Presents “Asparagas, Stalking the Wild Life”
Vashon’s Cafe Luna presents “Asparagus, Stalking the Wild Life” as part of its Lunavision series Thursday, November 13, at 7 pm. The film, directed by Anne de Mare and Kirsten Kelly, explores the world of Oceana, County, MI, the so-called Asparagas Capital of the World. Scenes depict and Asparagas Festival, various collections of asparagas apparel and dinnerware, and a high school classroom experiment about the effects of asparagas on the human body. Be honest . . . didn’t you want to know why . . . ? The film also takes a look at the global economy and the war on drugs and their effect on Oceana’ apparent lock on the edible niche market.
Vashon’s Blue Heron: Hell’s Bellows!
Vashon’s Blue Heron Arts Center presents Hell’s Bellows! on Saturday, November 22, a Seattle-based quartet featurin, you guessed it, the gospel of accordian chaos. The bands repertoire ranges from contemporary classical to gypsy/Eastern European, and four-part harmony vocals. “Collectively the group has played for 47 years and in concert touched nearly 700 buttons and keys.”
Tickets are $10 for VAA members, students and seniors and $12 general admission. Call 463-5131 to reserve tickets.
Vashon’s Red Bicycle: Ari Joshua and Friends
Vashon’s Red Bicycle presents Ari Joshua and Friends in a free concert at 9:30 Saturday, November 15. Ari Joshua Zucker is a South African-born musician who melds jazz, rock and groove styles. He performed at Seattle’s Showbox last week with Seattle music legends Tom Morello (Rage Against the Machine) and Mike McCready (Pearl Jam). He trained and played in New York with jazz legends Wynton Marsalis, Rashied Ali, Kenny Barron and Reggie Workman.
The show is for those 21 and older.
Vashon Chamber of Commerce: Small Business Seminar
The Vashon Chamber of Commerce is sponsoring a free seminar sponsored by the Service Corps of Retired Executives, a non-profit association dedicated to educating entrepreneurs and the formation, growth and success of small businesses worldwide. The seminar will be presented on Tuesday, November 18. To RSVP, write to lee@vashonchamber.com. Questions? call Lee Ockinga, Executive Director of the Chamber, at 463-6217.
SCORE business counselor Ed Milan will lead the group in the creation of a business plan, including financial reports, marketing reports and sales forecasts.
The Chamber is initiating a partnership with SCORE and will host SCORE meetings for individual businesses on a monthly basis at the Chamber offices. If you wish to sign up for additional assistance from SCORE, the association offers one-on-one help in all aspects of growing a business. Their working and retired counselors are experts in various business needs.
Vashon Island Real Estate: Foreclosure Rumors and Solutions
The Seattle Post-Intelligencer reported on October 30 that the federal government may use $50 billion of the recently approved bailout money bailout money to stem the tide of real estate foreclosures for approximately 3 million homeowners. The $50 billion investment would guarantee roughly $500 billion in mortgages under banking loan policies.
The plan could include loan modification that would lower interest rates for a five-year period and is an aggressive first cut at the damage inflicted on the economy from the US housing recession. The Mortgage Bankers association reported that more than 4 million Americans are at least one month behind on their mortgage payments at the end of June, and 500,000 Americans had started the foreclosure process.
Update: On November 12, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports that Federal officials have approved a plan to rework threatened home loans owned or guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which took over Freddie and Fannie in September, announced the plan with multiple officials from the US Treasury, Department of Housing and Urban Development, and Wells Fargo among others.
Freddie and Fannie own or guarantee about 58% of all single family loans. Those loans represent only 20% of all serious delinquencies.
The new program is scheduled to start in December 15 and is available to borrowers who have missed ar least three payments, have loans for at least 90% of the home’s value, live in the home as a primary residence, and have not filed for bankruptcy.
The program will reduce payments to no more than 38% of the household’s monthly gross income by reducing the interest rate, extending the life of the loan, deferring payment on part of the principal, and customized steps, if needed.
However, the program has been called not extensive enough to help all mortgage holders in crisis.
Vashon Island Real Estate: State of the Market
The Seattle Times Real Estate Section for November 9, 2008, contained two sobering articles about the continuing perturbations in the national housing market. The first article, A Realty Reality Check, written by Ylan Q. Mui of the Washington Post, discussed the impact of Consumer Fear in the face of the current economic turmoil. The second article, Bargains Help Cut Housing Glut, written by James R. Hagerty of the Wall Street Journal, discussed the impact of purchases of foreclosed homes by investors hunting for distressed properties. Taken together, these articles offer sound wisdom to both sellers and buyers on Vashon Island.
The thesis of Mui’s article is that the palpable fear of homesellers that they are losing enormous amounts of home equity if they put their home on the market today, and the corollary fear of buyers that the market has not bottomed out and that they can expect deeper price cuts if they wait it out, has caused the market to freeze. Even though reports suggest that banks are now making mortgage loans available to qualified buyers, demand for mortgages has declined.
Mui writes that psychologists are ranking the emotional angst on a par with the stress of divorce and even death. Behavioral economist Rom Brafman calls the condition “loss aversion,” that is, when FEAR of action creates a stagnant economy. The condition is insidious. It works like this: if the median price of houses were to fall slightly, a few more homes would sell; but, if the median price would rise by the same amount, home buyers would drastically cut back on their willingness to purchase a home.
For example, a 2001 study of the Boston housing market found that sellers who expected to take a loss on selling their condominiums set prices HIGHER than did their competitors, effectively pricing themselves out of the market. By the same token, buyers can also take themselves out of the market with inflated views of their purchasing power in a distressed market, passing by reasonably priced homes on a gamble that a sweeter deal is around the corner.
Consider this emotional analysis with Hagerty’s article concerning the emerging investment market in distressed properties, investors snapping up properties to turn into rental units. The effect is an apparent decline in the amount if inventory on the market which consumers might mistake for a turn in the traditional market.
The mistake is that these sales are not traditional transactions between homeowners and buyers, and they are not spread across the board of available inventory. These transactions are between investors and banks which have foreclosed on properties and are in all liklihood selling the properties at some loss.
Consider. A quarterly Wall Street Journal report on data from 28 cities shows that the glut in homes listed for sale is shrinking. The Census Bureau reported that seasonally adjusted new home sales were down 33% from September 2007. The National Association of Realtors reports that sales of previously occupied homes edged up 1.4% in September relative to 2007. Further, housing analysts caution that many homes that aren’t currently listed for sale may hit the market within the next few years.
Factor in evidence that many sellers have taken their homes off the market to try to wait out the storm, and intend to re-list their properties when they perceive the market has strengthened . . . which will swell the market dramatically down the road. This future glut will continue to depress prices!
As we all know, the general economic news is getting worse. Selective bailouts by the current administration do not seem to stem the tide of market shift.
What is a home seller or buyer to make of this data and the perception that the purchase or sale of property is a fearful event?
First, be cognizant of the role fear is playing in the market and remove it from your decision making calculus. Second, view the purchase of a home as a long term investment, similar to the approach a prudent investor takes in the stock market. This advice applies to a home seller who is moving on to a new property. Third, be aware of the impending increased glut in the market as more foreclosures arise AND as sellers decide to relist their homes out of necessity or a perception that the market is correcting.
Finally, homesellers and real estate professionals must take a cold hard look at today’s market, not the artificial market of yesterday that was fueled by sub-prime lending. A realistic home price today should be set through consultation with an experienced professional who is deeply aware of local market trends.
Celia Chen, director housing economics at Moody’s Economy.com, expects a further drop of 14% before prices bottom out in the second half of 2009. Be aware that the market will not bottom out or recover at the same time for all regions of the country and for all sectors of the housing market.
Vashon Music Workshop: Learn Improv with Ken Jacobsen
Vashon Island music instructor and artist Ken Jacobsen will give a workshop on basic improvisation from 12-3pm on Saturday, November 15, at the Vashon Island Music Studio. Topics will include the pentatonic scales, modes of the major scale and playing over common chord progressions in different musical styles. This represents a rare opportunity to take a class with one of the treasures of Vashon’s music scene. Bring your guitar, bass or other instruments. The class costs $35. Call 661-3509 for more information.
Vashon Senior Center: Senior Dinner
Vashon’s Senior Center will host its traditional holiday dinner (turkey with all the trimmings) for seniors on Sunday, December 14, beginning at 1 pm. The dinner has been organized for more than 70 years by the Vashon Kiwanis. The dinner will be held at Camp Burton. Vashon High School Key Club and McMurray School Builders Club members are traditional servers. Kiwanis members and spouses do the food preparation. The dinner is free. Music entertainment will be provided by Gaye Setzer’s Suzuki School and by Mary Tuel. Travel will be provided to those unable to drive, says event director Mike Quenneville. More information, as available, may be found at the Kiwanis web site.
Vashon Real Estate: Outstanding Financial News for Owners
Forbes Magazine Identifies Seattle Area as the Housing Real Estate Market Most Likely to Respond
Dorothy Pomerantz writes on October 29, 2008, that trends in the commercial real estate market indicate that Seattle is viewed as the strongest area in the country to invest in real estate. In a survey of 700 real estate professionals performed by the Urban Land Institute, Seattle ranks NUMBER ONE in factors tied to economic recovery potential. Those factors include cities that are gateways to international investment, have vital down town areas (note the recent referendum to fund the rehabilitation of the Pike Place Market!!!!), and no glut of office space or condos.
The single-family home sector typically follows the economy of the commercial real estate market.
If you’re a homeowner seeing property values plummet, look to the commercial real estate market for solace. It might tell you which areas will recover fastest–and which will likely remain weak. The Urban Land Institute recently asked 700 real estate professionals to name the best (and worst) places to invest in commercial real estate in the coming year. Those surveyed included private developers, Realtors and Real Estate Investment Trust executives. Their answers also apply to the residential market, since the single-family-home sector typically follows the economy. As wages go up and there are more jobs, more people can buy homes, pushing prices up.
These traits landed Seattle the No. 1 spot on the list. Stephen Blank, Senior Resident Fellow with the Urban Land Institute, writes, “Seattle is “a diversified market, has a good base of business and is becoming a 24-hour city.” “It’s going to be in a good position to come back.”
Although the city is suffering from the loss of Washington Mutual and the downsizing of Starbucks, Boeing and Microsoft are still relatively strong. Apartment vacancies are low and there aren’t too many new buildings going up, meaning the market won’t be oversupplied. The same is true in the retail space.
The remainging question, of course, is when are consumers going to regain their confidence in the Seattle real estate market and take advantage of the buyers’ market that exists.
Vashon Island Ferries: View Schedule on I-Phone
Vashon Islander Richard Joffray has developed an I-Phone program that puts Washington State Ferry schedules, system alerts and real time ferry location maps at his fingertips. Joffray made the I-Phones application available at the I-Tunes store several weeks ago. It is now downloaded by approximately 50 people every day. The schedule can be accessed with or without internet access. The application is currently free but an upgraded version will be available shortly and will cost $3. The application prompts the user to upload new ferry schedule information when appropriate. Find it in I-Tunes by searching for Vashon or WSF.
Vashon Island Growers Association: Pumpkin Pie Contest
The Vashon Island Growers Association will hold its third annual Pumpkin Pie Contest on Saturday, November 22. The winner will receive a hand-quilted apron to wear for a year made by 2006 winner Rebecca Wittman., a $25 Vashon Farmers’ Market Gift Certificate, and an etched glass pie pan. Pies will be given extra points by the judges if pie-makers use Vashon Island grown ingredients.
Pies should be brought to the market at 10 am, November 22, and VIGA requests that all pie bakers be present for the awards ceremony at noon. Beginning at noon, slices of pie will be sold for $1 to benefit the Vashon-Maury Island Food Bank.
For more information, call Market Manager Joanne Jewell at 267-8146 or click here.
Bragging rights attach for one year!
Vashon Island Pet Protectors: Adopt-a-Cat Day, Pet Care
The Vashon Island Pet Protectors will sponsor an Adopt-A-Cat Day every Saturday from 11:30 am to 2:30 pm at its new adoption center at 12200 SW 243rd Street. Click on VIPP for directions or call VIPP at 389-1085.
On Sunday, November 16, from 1-4 pm at the library, VIPP will present a talk on dog and cat care. The program will include a discussion of the new pet shelter. Alan Givotovsky and Kay Arthur-Farris will talk about normal pet weight, first aid techniques and medication, the pros and cons of processed food versus raw and homemade food, poisonous plants, food and substances to avoid. Wendy Dahl will present on choosing a pet, how to care for a pet and how to handle pet behavior issues.
Although our Chessies Zuby and Ben clearly need to be in on the discussion of pet behavior . . . well, actually, the DO behave like normal Chessies . . . folks are reminded not to bring their 4-legged friends.
Questions? Call Emma Newby-Letestu at 463-0979.
Vashon Kids: Justin Roberts Plays at the Vashon Theater
Popular musician Justin Roberts and his Not-Ready for Naptime Players will perform at Vashon Theater at 2 pm on Saturday, November 15. Vashon’s own Just Fiddling Around will open from 1:15 to 1:45. Entertainment Weekly declares Robert’s music to be “pure fun.” Tickets are $15 and are available now at the Vashon Theater, Vashon Island Music, and online at Brown Paper Tickets.com.
Voice of Vashon: Radio Plays at Ober Park
Voice of Vashon, Vashon’s independent radio and television station, will present their VOV Radio Theater 10 Minute Play Festival at 7:30 pm on Saturday, November 15, at the Ober Park Performance Space. The event is co-sponsored by the Vashon Park District. The Festival will feature 12 Vashon Island actors, four directors and six plays. The performance will be recorded for radio and television broadcast. Admission is by donation.
Vashon Home for Sale: New Beautiful Custom Home – New Price!
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Vashon’s Red Bicycle: More Free Shows!
In a response to the economic downturn and Vashon Islanders’ budget concerns, the Red Bicycle has announced that it will eliminate the cover charge on more music shows. The Bike will continue to bring the community the best possible entertainment, but encourage attendance by waiving cover charges.
There will be two free shows this weekend, with Sidestreet Reny at 9:30 pm on Friday, November 7. Reny presents a “gumbo” of delta blues, folk rock, hip hop and reggae. Check out this video of Dying Crapshooter’s Blues. .
The no cover policy continues Saturday, November 8 at 9 pm with a night of three reggae bands, and DJ Maka Roots. The bands the Crucialites,
and Tacoma band Laborer. The show is for ages 21 and older.
Vashon’s Cafe Luna: Alicia Healey & Friends
Alicia Healey with Lisa Mills & Laurie Miller
Country/Roots/Pop/Folk
November 15, Saturday, 7:30
No Cover
Seattle songwriter Alicia Healey brings with Lisa Mills and Laurie Miller (both of Swamp Mama Johnson) will be performing vocals, harmonica and electric guitar at Cafe Luna.
Alicia Healey is real live Iowa farm girl. Back on the homestead, her powerful, classically-trained voice won her acclaim in musical theatre, but her “inner songwriter” was hankering to get out. She polished up her folk guitar, came west, and started writing songs that added a contemporary folk flavor to her driving pop and country. Her songwriting is featured on the CD “Quiet Here” and her new recording “Live at the Mansion.”
She spent several years with the acoustic country/folk group Rodeo Lagoon a group well-known in the Pacific Northwest for its amazing harmonies and fresh arrangements of folk and bluegrass songs. Rodeo Lagoon recorded an 7-song CD in 2001 (available for download and order), which highlights both the lead-vocal prowess and the magical blend of the three voices.
Vashon Island: Local Mortgage Rates
The Seattle Times reports a slight uptick in 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed and 1 year ARM rates for the month of October 2008.
Vashon Real Estate: Home Prices
The Seattle Times reported on November 2, 2008, that 4 out of 10 Seattle area homes have had their asking price discounted in response to the state of the current housing market. According to Zip Realty, a national real-estate brokerage which analyzed housing trends for the past three months, most cuts were in the 1 to 5% range. The deepest cuts were on Mercer Island where homes sold for 91.8 per cent of their asking price. Zip Realty provides no analysis for the price discounts. However, fundamental economic theory suggests that the supply/demand ratio still favors buyers in the current market. With Federal financial action, intended to strengthen the availability of mortgage lending, beginning to trickle down to local lenders, it is difficult to forecast how long theis buyers’ market will endure.
Zip Realty found that the percentage of Seattle area homes subject to price reductions has increased 2.9% compared with the same period in 2007. Zip also discovered that Seattle has experienced one of the largest inventory increases among major metropolitan areas, 8.8 % more than the same period in 2007.
Factors to consider in setting a home sale price include:
- whether your home is in top shape for sale, as buyers know there are competitive deal available
- the availability of similar homes in the neighborhood creates price competition
- local foreclosures depress the price of other for-sale homes
- and, the biggest reason, sellers initially list a house too high, which knocks a seller out of the window of opportunity for first-time listings
